HSC experiences highest population rate drop in state

According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Hot Springs County showed the largest percentage of population loss in Wyoming for 2018. The report compared population estimates from July 2017 to July 2018, and has the county at 2.8 percent population loss, the largest percentage across the state.

That doesn’t mean we had the highest number of people leaving the county, but due to our size and population being fairly small compared to other counties — we have the second smallest population at 4,555 — any loss or gain in population has a more profound impact. The 2.8 percent decline is caused from losing 131 people.

In comparison, Sweetwater County lost 496 people during the year, but because of the 43,000-plus population in that county, the loss only accounts for 1.1 percent.

Looking at population from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, Hot Springs County has lost 257 people, or 5.3 percent, and more than half of that has been from July 2017 to July 2018.

And it’s not just these two counties that experienced loss. According to the report, more than half of the counties in Wyoming lost population and the overall loss to the state was 1,197 people, or 0.2 percent, in the third consecutive year of decline. It was much less than the previous year’s loss of 5,356, or 0.9 percent.

Carbon and Washakie counties also experienced a decline of nearly two percent, each. Lincoln was the only county that demonstrated an increase of close to one percent. Most other counties with moderate increases are located in the Northwest and the Southeast areas of the state where there are minimal energy extraction operations.

Since 2010, the fastest growing counties were Teton (8.4 percent), Laramie (7.7 percent), and Lincoln (7.3 percent).

“Employment drives migration change, particularly for young adults,” said Amy Bittner, Senior Economist with State of Wyoming, Economic Analysis Division. “People tend to move to areas where jobs are available. Conversely, people may leave areas where employment opportunities become limited.”

Even though Wyoming’s economy has been rebounding since late 2016, the speed of the recovery was still moderate. Between the second quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2018, about 2,000 or 0.7 percent payroll jobs were added. Campbell, Converse, and Sublette counties have gained the most jobs, but the overall labor force was still at a lower level than before the economic downturn. These counties have the most mineral activities and endured the heaviest employment losses during the downturn. In addition, the labor market nationwide, particularly in neighboring states such as Colorado, Utah, and Idaho, continued to show strong growth, which drew Wyoming workers and residents.

However, after six years of decline, the state’s labor force has finally stabilized or even ticked up by the end of 2018. With a current unemployment rate of below 4.0 percent, which is among the lowest rates in ten years, Wyoming’s job market is quite tight. As a result, average working hours in private industries have gradually been increasing to the level before the economic downturn, and growth in hourly earnings were particularly strong – the fastest in many years. “Wyoming’s current labor market environment is definitely providing opportunities and encouragement for people who are looking for jobs within the state,” Bittner commented.